Hong Kong, 19 August 2026: “Boy, I’ve got vision and the rest of the world wears bifocals.” So laments Butch Cassidy to the Sundance Kid in the iconic movie bearing their names after revealing – much to his partner’s mirth – his plan to relocate to Bolivia. Far removed from the sheriffs pursuing them in the Wild West, Butch reckons it is the perfect place for the pair to continue their outlaw ways. The Kid is unconvinced but they go anyway, teeing up one of the most famous endings in Hollywood history.
Hong Kong leader John Lee can also see the bigger picture. He has a bold vision for our city but, to counter any Sundance-like scepticism, he is more than happy to share it with citizens. Our government has just concluded a two-month public consultation on the city’s first-ever five-year plan, designed to help us integrate better with the national economy. He predicts the blueprint – to be unveiled next month – will be a “strategic, forward-looking and directional guiding document”.
Do we need one? Apparently so. “The market is almost always right, but not always right,” insists University of Hong Kong economist Heiwai Tang, adding that our city “should not be the last defender of laissez-faire”. Lack of long-term planning has brought us a chronic housing shortage, widening inequality and limited upward mobility, he believes. Lau Siu-kai agrees. A consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank, he feels our city’s “bureaucratic culture” has resulted in “short-term execution instead of visionary foresight”.
John Lee will be pleased to know that, far from wearing bifocals, residents concur with his vision. The authorities have received an impressive 16,000 public submissions. Credit should go to the government for conducting more than 100 consultation sessions, 30 by our leader alone. Mainland affairs secretary Janice Tse hails the blueprint and public response as “a milestone in public administration”. Her team has utilised AI to analyse suggestions, she reveals, with a broad consensus that Hong Kong’s integration into national development needs managing.
While numerous organisations – political parties, NGOs, chambers of commerce and the like – have offered their views, a whopping 80% of submissions are from individuals, many concerned about livelihood issues. You can bet housing (or lack of) tops the list. Hong Kong has just been crowned the world’s most unaffordable residential property market for the 16th straight year. It would take the average citizen more than 14 years of saving total gross income – without factoring in food, clothing, public transport etc – to purchase a standard apartment. As for public housing, which provides accommodation for 50% of residents, the waiting time for a flat has nudged up to 4.8 years.
All this gives added significance to the Northern Metropolis. This is our government’s ambitious project to transform 30,000 hectares of land near the border with mainland China into an economic and residential hub. Some 150,000 public homes will be built by the Housing Authority and the Housing Society over the next decade. The first estate will be completed by the end of this year, reveals housing minister Winnie Ho. In total, the mega-city will house roughly 2.5 million people and create 650,000 jobs. Small wonder it is central to the five-year plan.
Population policy should be as well, opines social administration professor Nelson Chow. “When planning for healthcare, education, social welfare and housing, it ultimately comes down to population shifts, and the resulting demand for these services,” he observes. Fair point. Some 20% of our city’s population is aged 65 or over; this figure will rise to 36% in 2046 thanks to Hong Kong being among world leaders in both life expectancy and low birth rate. Indeed, we have just recorded fewer than 30,000 births annually for the first time on record, marking a 15% year-on-year dip.
With a declining workforce, we clearly need to import talent. Hence the Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, one of several official programmes to attract “highly skilled or talented persons” to settle here. Typical candidates include tech whizzkids, entrepreneurs and finance sector executives. No one had snooker players on their list, but six-time World Championship runner-up Jimmy White has just become the fourth such star to be admitted. Immigration chief Benson Kwok denies low taxation is their prime motivation, pointing out they would pay zero tax in the Middle East.
Almost 140 current or retired athletes have now relocated to Hong Kong under talent schemes since 2023. One who has no need for such incentives is former footballer Michael Campion, born and raised here and an enthusiastic proponent of this city’s attractions. He is my latest guest on Law & More, reflecting on a diverse career that now sees him as keynote speaker and corporate trainer, improving the communication skills of top executives and public figures.
Which brings me neatly back to John Lee. While meticulously mapping out Hong Kong’s future, he remains coy about his own, declining to commit to a second term in office next summer. “A year is a long time,” he insists. History beckons, as no post-1997 city leader has completed two five-year cycles, the maximum allowed.
Now 68 and with a lifetime of public service behind him, the chief executive will take his time deciding. Unlike our friends Butch and Sundance, he can choose when to ride into the sunset.
Until next time, everybody!
Colin Cohen
Senior Partner
Boase Cohen & Collins
